以下是雅虎財經新聞為讀者問題提供的部分解答，更多請讀英文報道29 recession questions answered。
What is recession(經濟衰退)?
National Bureau of Economic Research: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. 顯著的經濟活動減少，反映在國民生產總值、收入、就業、工業生產、批發和零售。
What’s the difference between a recession and a depression(蕭條)?
Depression is a severe version of a recession. Real GDP fell nearly 30% from 1929 to 1933 Depression, but during the “Great Recession” from 2007 to 2009, real GDP fell by just 4%. The current downturn is likely to be bad.
How long will it last?
Way longer than anybody would like. It’s possible some of the many states with stay-at-home orders will begin to ease the rules by June, but they’ll likely do this very slowly, to reduce the odds of the virus resurging. Some closed businesses will never reopen and some laid-off employees will never go back to their old jobs.
Can there be a happy medium between keeping people safe but not having the economy continue to be hurt(兼顧健康和經濟)?
There are obvious risks to sending people back into society without a vaccine, cure or treatment for the virus. But there are risks from closing businesses and interrupting workers’ livelihood, too. We can use technology to identify safest people(抗體測試) to return to work first, probably also space workers out more and require the use of gloves or masks(防止接觸感染). Widespread testing and infection tracking(大規模測試與追蹤) is very important... We’re likely to be living with more health and financial risk until a vaccine is widely available.
Is coronavirus the sole cause of the recession?
Pretty much. The virus shut down commerce(停止商業活動) in much of the world because it’s highly infectious and perhaps 10 times deadlier than the flu. Without treatment or a vaccine, the only way to stop the spread is to limit travel and human interaction, and impose strict distancing measures(用限制旅行和要求社交疏離來防止大規模傳染)。
Are we past the worst?
In terms of the virus spread, it’s possible. In the University of Washington’s forecasting model, the peak date for U.S. deaths was April 13. Some states appear to be past the peak for deaths earlier than other states. Economically, the worst is probably ahead, as the recession drags on, it gets tougher for businesses and workers to survive.
What’s with the shortages of food and toilet paper(何來短缺)?
Supply chain disruptions. The United States has very efficient distribution systems(高效發配體制), with “just-in-time delivery” (及時運輸)that leaves minimal inventory suppliers and retailers(減少零售供應庫存) have to pay to store. But that leaves the system vulnerable to a surge in demand, which is what’s happening now, especially as people hoard(囤積造成的需求增加). Production lines can sometimes crank up the volume, but not as fast as the massive shift in consumer behavior that’s underway.
Why are some people working and also getting a check from the government?
The CARES Act that Congress passed in March includes payments for most Americans, up to $1,200. Whether you have a job or not, the money is yours if you are a U.S. citizen or legal resident. Couples earning more than $150,000 will see decreased amount, and $198,000 to see nonpayment(補貼所有人).
How is the $2.2 trillion stimulus program paid for?
The Treasury Department will simply borrow the money by issuing Treasury securities(發行各種國庫券), which remain in high demand.
Are negative interest rates coming(會出現負利率)?
Let’s hope not. There are already negative short-term rates in Europe, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said negative rates aren’t “appropriate” in the United States. If we do get negative rates, remember that they would apply to overnight loans banks make to each other, not to consumer lending(不會影響消費者借貸利率).
Will zero interest rates and high unemployment bankrupt Social Security?
The Social Security trust fund estimated to be solvent in 2034. When the trust fund runs out, that doesn’t mean a bankrupt. It means it can only fund benefits at the rate of revenue coming into the program through the payroll tax that funds it, which would be about 75% of current benefits unless Congress fixes that (which is likely). Medicare's trust fund due to run dry in 2026. Financing for both programs will surely deteriorate as the coronavirus recession kills jobs and the associated federal revenue. (暫時還不會影響美國社保福利和老年保健計劃。)
No comments:
Post a Comment