聽信謠傳的選舉結果

本文內容取自Brookings治理研究院Darrell M. West院士11月7日的一篇時評。我想他的判斷很對，因現代社交媒體特別獎勵那些傳播聳人聽聞假消息/假標題的人。

There are many reasons for the stunning election victories of Donald Trump and congressional Republicans: inflation fears, concerns about border security, worries about cultural issues related to race, gender, and sexuality, and feelings that President Joe Biden and the country as a whole were headed in the wrong direction. As my colleague Bill Galston persuasively has argued, people’s judgements about inflation and immigration were harsh during this election season, and these views harmed their assessments of Kamala Harris and strengthened the case for Trump. 川普和共和黨人在這次大選中取得驚人的勝利，原因是人們的各種擔憂，特別是在通貨膨漲和移民問題上，人們的觀點很嚴厲，損害了對賀錦麗的評估，強化了川普的說辭。

But we can’t ignore the ways in which disinformation shaped views about the candidates, affected how voters saw leader performance, and generated widespread media attention. As Elaine Kamarck and I argue in our Brookings Press book “Lies That Kill: A Citizen’s Guide to Disinformation,” there are systematic and organized efforts to shape public opinion in many areas, from public health and climate change to race relations.
但這次大量假消息影響了人們對候選人表現和政績的看法，不能忽視。正如Elaine Kamarck與West院士合著《致命的謊言：虛假信息公民指南》所說的，從公共衛生、氣候變遷到種族關係等許多領域，公眾輿論都受到系統性組織性的影響。

So, we shouldn’t be surprised that the same thing happened during the 2024 election. Campaign examples this fall include the infamous stories about immigrants eating cats and dogs, hurricane disaster relief funding going to undocumented immigrants, Kamala Harris in a swimsuit hugging convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, and the supposed case of Tim Walz abusing a young man 30 years ago. Disinformation flowed into our info-ecosystem from other countries as well. One video featured a Haitian man (although he was not really Haitian) saying he had just gotten to the United States and had voted in two counties—Gwinnett and Fulton—in Georgia, but it turned out to be a fake video made in Russia. 競選中的臭名昭著謠傳，包括移民吃貓狗、颶風救災資金發給無證移民、賀錦麗穿著泳裝擁抱戀童罪犯Epstein合影、以及她的副總統候選人30年前虐待一名年輕人的憑空指控。還有一名(假的)海地男子稱他剛抵達美國就在喬州的兩個郡都投了票的假影片--是在俄國製作的。

These and other efforts were successful in shaping the campaign narrative because they were disseminated broadly on social media platforms, promoted through funny memes, picked up and publicized by mainstream media outlets, circulated by internet mega-influencers, and amplified by leading candidates during rallies, debates, and interviews. In a situation where public confidence in news reporters is very low and new generative AI tools make it easy to create and disseminate fake pictures, videos, and narratives, the 2024 campaign was rife with organized efforts to sway voters, twist perceptions, and make people believe negative material about various candidates.
這些宣傳塑造了競選敘事，在社交媒體平台上，用有趣的表情包傳播，被主流媒體和互聯網轉載，在集會上被主要候選人放大，辯論、採訪。公眾對新聞記者的信心已經很低，新的生成式AI工具能夠輕鬆創建和傳播虛假圖片影片。2024年競選充滿了有謀劃的影響選民、扭曲人們看法的宣傳。

Polling data suggest that false claims affected how people saw the candidates, their views about leading issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, and the way the news media covered the campaign. Take the case of immigration and border security. According to candidate Trump, there were hordes of migrants overrunning the country’s southern border, unfairly monopolizing scarce public resources and endangering public security through dangerous crime waves.
虛假說法影響人們對候選人、對經濟、移民和犯罪等等看法。比如移民和邊境安全，川普說成群結隊的移民佔領了南部邊境，占用了稀缺的公共資源，並帶來犯罪浪潮危及治安。

Actual border statistics consistently showed weak support for those claims, but that wasn’t enough to quell unfavorable views about Harris on border security. The idea that 10 million migrants had crossed the border and that many were released after capture was not true, according to independent fact-checkers. Apprehension and release numbers dropped during the Biden administration and were comparable to figures during the Trump administration.
實際數據並不支持川普的說法，但這不足以平息人們對賀錦麗的不利看法。有關1000萬移民越境且許多人在抓獲後被釋放的說法並不屬實，拜登執政與川普執政期間的抓獲和釋放數字其實差不多。

In addition, crime statistics showed that native-born Americans actually committed crimes at levels three times higher than immigrants. According to the National Institute for Justice, native-born Americans committed around 1,100 crimes per 100,000 people, compared to 800 by legal immigrants and 400 for undocumented immigrants. But Trump’s false claims in this area made Harris look ineffective on crime and immigration. 犯罪率統計數字：每10萬人平均有1100起罪行是由本土美國人所犯，而合法移民犯了800起，無證移民僅為400起。然而，川普在這方面的渲染顯得很有效果。

On views about inflation and the overall economy, people in 2024 consistently reported very negative opinions compared to actual inflation, unemployment, and GDP figures. Europeans have been especially perplexed by American’s sour views of the economy. On the eve of the general election, the Economist magazine even had a cover story saying the U.S. economy was the envy of the world. Yet voters had a dismal view of the economy and rated Harris negatively for the economic situation. 關於整體經濟和通貨膨漲，選民一致相信了很負面的說法，讓歐洲人尤其感到困惑。大選前夕《經濟學人》雜誌甚至稱美國經濟令全世界羨慕，然而選民對經濟持悲觀態度，給予負面評價。

For coming political battles, people need to be aware of how the current information ecosystem regularly is promoting falsehoods and skewing views about important issues. But we do not need to stand back and accept widespread misperceptions as the new reality. There are several things people and organizations can do to protect themselves for what will be a continuing wave of misinformation, disinformation, and false narratives.
不少人相信了川普的假話，不是玩笑。人們需要意識到當前的信息系統問題，其中經常傳播虛假訊息，歪曲重要議題。但人們可以採取多種措施來保護自己，免受持續不斷錯誤訊息、虛假新聞和說法的影響。

There needs to be meaningful content moderation by social media platforms. Right now, many leading platforms are cesspools of rumors, false information, and outright lies. They are widely disseminated and seen by millions of people. If that continues, it will become increasingly difficult to discern fact from fiction—endangering our country’s ability to address major problems. Companies need to get far more serious about content moderation.
看來，社交媒體平台需要進行認真有意義的內容審核。目前許多主要平台都是謠言、虛假資訊和徹頭徹尾的謠言的污水池，被廣泛傳播。如果這種情況繼續下去，辨別事實與虛構會越來越難，危及美國解決重大問題的能力。

The disinformation risks have grown stronger in recent months due to new tech tools such as generative AI. There are easy-to-use tools that can create false pictures, videos, audio, and narratives. People no longer need a technical background to use AI tools but can make requests through prompts and templates and become master propagandists. We need digital literacy programs that train people on how to evaluate online information and spot fakes and deceptions.
最近由於生成式AI等等新技術出現，虛假信息的風險越來越大，有工具幫你創建虛假圖片、影音和敘述。使用AI不再需要技術背景，而可以藉提示和模板成為宣傳高手。我們需要搞些普及培訓，教人評估線上資訊並發現虛假和欺騙行為。

We have to understand how changes in the contemporary political environment make people want to believe negative information about the opposition. In a highly polarized world, where people are divided into competing political tribes, millions of Americans admit they themselves have intentionally spread information they know to be false. If that continues, it will lead to disaster for our country’s politics and governance. 人們需要了解，政治環境變化如何讓人們願意相信有關反對黨的負面訊息。高度兩極化讓人分成政治部落，上百萬美國人承認自己故意傳播錯誤信息。這會為美國的政治和治理帶來災難。

Finally, many individuals and organizations have financial incentives to spread blatant lies. Through websites, newsletters, and digital platforms, they make money from subscriptions, advertising, and merchandise sales. As long as spreading lies is lucrative, it will be hard to get a serious handle on the flood of disinformation that plagues our current system.
許多個人和機構都有經濟動機來傳播聳人聽聞的謊言。他們藉網站、電子報和社交平台，從訂閱、點擊量、廣告和商品銷售中圖利。

除了聽信謠傳，當然人們投川普一票的原因可能也包括對拜登政府現政策的其它各種不滿。比如我覺得他過分講團結合作，到了不切實際的程度。比如忽略了雷厲風行改革最高法庭的機會，或者及時調查審判川普一伙推翻上次選舉和洩露國家機密文件的罪案。